Malte Lauterbach reports live from northern Israel about Friday evening’s events and the past week’s developments. After months of exchanges of fire with Hezbollah, an Israeli offensive in southern Lebanon seems increasingly likely.
Note: This article was written on September 20, 2024, at 10:30 p.m. local time. The situation is unstable, and the article may already be outdated.
As the 98th Paratroopers Division „Ha-Esh,“ which has fought on the front lines in most Israeli wars, is hastily transferred to the north and the Israeli Security Cabinet meets on Shabbat—a rare exception reserved for crises—traffic in the north is being significantly reduced. In many places, roadblocks are controlling traffic. Outsiders are being turned back, and residents are advised to stay indoors and near shelters.
Even for journalists, reporting has become difficult—photography is discouraged because, after all, Hezbollah reads the news too.
It has been a truly eventful week in the Middle East. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Israeli intelligence sabotaged Hezbollah’s communications by manipulating their pagers. This act demonstrates the far-reaching influence of Israeli intelligence on Hezbollah’s communication and coordination structures.
Such an extensive operation is truly unprecedented in history. In a few minutes, the action, which had been years in the making and was executed in recent months, severely injured or killed much of Hezbollah’s leadership with minimal civilian casualties.
The destruction of the pagers forces Hezbollah to rely on less secure communication methods that are easier to intercept. Pagers are one-way communication devices, meaning only the sender can be identified. However, during a phone call, both parties are easily identifiable. Such an unsecured phone call revealed to the Israeli army the meeting location of several high-ranking Hezbollah members, reportedly including Ibrahim Aquil, an internationally wanted terrorist responsible for bombings that killed dozens of U.S. personnel in 1983.
Hezbollah’s previously seamless communication between individual units and central leadership, which set them apart from traditional militias and placed them on par with many modern armies, seems to have been completely disrupted.
Nevertheless, Hezbollah remains largely operational despite the attacks. Today alone, more than 350 rockets were fired from Lebanon into northern Israel, hitting both military and civilian targets. Yesterday, two Israeli soldiers were killed in drone strikes.
Hezbollah’s stockpiles—particularly of drones and precision-guided missiles—appear to be far deeper than initially thought before the war.
While the IDF increasingly shifts its focus to the northern front, the ongoing war in Gaza remains an unsolved issue. After nearly a year of war, most of Gaza lies in ruins. Yet Hamas’s military capabilities remain intact, and in some areas, their power is stronger than ever.
Rockets continue to be fired into Israel daily. In a recent interview with BSN, Israeli officials admitted, “The war in Gaza is essentially over—we haven’t won, but we haven’t lost either.”
Meanwhile, in the evacuated northern towns, it’s quiet—deadly quiet. The warm summer wind sweeps through the forests and fields of Galilee—forests that, despite months of bombardment, have not been set ablaze. The silence is periodically broken by the roar of Hezbollah rockets, the deep rumble of Israeli bombs, and the sound of jets. Then silence returns. It’s almost eerie. During the last Lebanon war in 2006, there was no silence for a month. Israeli artillery fired nonstop at targets, with over 30,000 rounds fired in 31 days. For now, the artillery remains mostly silent. Whether it stays that way lies in the hands of Netanyahu, the Security Cabinet currently in session, and in the hands of Nasrallah and Khamenei.
Until then, it’s all quiet on the Norther Front.
